The Johnson Government & the ‘Deference-to-Science’

This blog, originally written on 14 March for the Harm and Evidence Research Collaborative (HERC) in OU Criminology, is written by Steve Tombs, Professor of Criminology at The Open University.

As I write, new developments unfold almost minute-by-minute regarding the all-encompassing coronavirus pandemic. There is no doubt that by the time you read this, any empirical reference points I might have included here will be out of date – there will be more diagnosed and suspected cases, more deaths, more volatile movements on the stock-markets and central bank efforts to control these, not to mention, across the globe, increasing closures, shutdowns and lockdown of communities, travel routes and mass gatherings amidst news reports of celebrities and leading politicians who have tested positive for the disease. This is so fast-moving that no snapshot analysis of the harms associated with Covid-19 can do justice to what is, in the experience of any of us reading this, an unprecedented global phenomenon.

What is of interest, however, and what may endure for those interested in Governmental responses to social harm is the early approach taken by the UK Government to the unfolding crisis. The latest, and highest formal point in this, came late on Thursday 12 March, when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed up the third ‘COBRA’ meeting in a week with another sombre, set-piece press conference. It is to this and what it means for Governmental approaches to harm, evidence and regulation upon which I wish to focus here.

The “worst health crisis in a generation”

In the context of Government interventions in social life across the globe of a kind and on a scale never before seen, the response of the Johnson Government has been, by comparison, at best pedestrian, at worst non-existent. For a Government which only 48 hours ago announced what some had hailed as the most Keynesian budget in a generation, the approach to the pandemic has been distinctly laissez-faire.

The Johnson Government had spent the day trailing the ‘fact’ that the country had moved from a ‘contain’ to a ‘delay’ phase, the latter being one in which we as a population were being primed for significant disruption. Yet that ground-laying was surprisingly at odds with the concrete measures set out by Johnson. In fact, and in full, these were as follows:

From tomorrow, if you have coronavirus symptoms, however mild – either a new continuous cough or a high temperature – then you should stay at home for at least 7 days to protect others and help slow the spread of the disease.

We advise all those over 70 and those with serious medical conditions against going on cruises and we advise against international school trips.

And in his closing statement, the PM reiterated the message of the preceding weeks:

It is still vital, perhaps more vital than ever – that we remember to wash our hands.

Such a response seems entirely at odds with the way in which the PM had introduced the press conference, referring to the “worst health crisis in a generation” which had led him to warn: “I must level with you, level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”

The appearance of science?

How, then, to make sense of this?

Firstly, we must understand the framing of the approach, typified at the press conference but characteristic of the Government’s response to the emerging pandemic over weeks. In his speech and then in response to questions, Johnson continually deferred to ‘the science’ and ‘the scientists’.

This deference was achieved visually in his being flanked by the government’s Chief Medical Officer, Prof. Chris Whitty, and the government’s Chief Scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance – as had been the case with previous press conferences on the matter earlier in the week. Not just this, but in the brief series of questions that were allowed following the three set-piece speeches by Johnson, Vallance and Whitty, the visuals were also reinforced – or at least that was the attempt – by a frankly somewhat ludicrous ‘sombrero’ type graph. A diagram on a flipchart, this was claimed to represent what an epidemic looked like – a flat lead in with a significant spike which, if not ‘flattened’, it was warned, would  overwhelm the country’s ability to cope and lead to ever greater death and emmiseration.

There was no sense as to what data had been used to construct the ‘graph’. Indeed, although minutes before the press conference, figures of 596 diagnosed cases  and 10 fatalities as a result of the virus in the UK had been released, Vallance estimated at the conference that “between 5,000 and 10,000 people in the UK are thought to have the virus now”, albeit virtually all undiagnosed, and not to be diagnosed, as it was also announced that testing in the community for the virus would from that point be halted. All of which places a great deal of emphasis on the epidemiology and the ’modelling’ to which all three men constantly referred  – and led some to wonder, what is it about UK data, science, epidemiology and modelling which is virtually unique when compared to that of every other country which has dealt with or is dealing with the same disease?

The discourse of science?

Given these discrepancies, the role of ‘science’ in the Governments approach seems at least  questionable. But this science-basis was reinforced discursively, consistently and constantly framing the Government’s approach as a scientific not a political matter. This had been evident for weeks but was perfectly captured in the set piece speeches at the press conference, and then the questions that followed. Thus, in his opening speech there, Johnson stated variously:

the Chief Scientific Adviser will set out the best information we have on that in a moment

• “the Chief Medical Officer will set out our lines of defence”
• “we are not introducing this [school closures and banning large gatherings] yet for reasons Sir Patrick will explain”
• “ .. the scientific advice ..”
• “at all stages, we have been guided by the science, and we will do the right thing at the right time”
• “the scientific advice [on closing schools now] is that this could do more harm than good at this time”
• “ .. the best scientific advice ..”
• “ .. we will continue to provide, as soon as we have it, as much clear scientific and medical information as we can ..”

So there is a key framing going on here – that the Government’s position is a-political, driven by, based on, and ‘all about’ the science. But this, of course, is to obscure some two centuries of anti-positivist social science which theorises and describes how science is always an effect of what questions are asked and what data is gathered to answer them,  always to be interpreted in highly value-laden ways, always and unavoidably infected by economic, political and social interests. It is, frankly, a ludicrous way to present ‘data’, not least by a Government in the midst of an unfolding crisis.

Nudges in the right direction?

As well as the attempt to root it in ‘science’,  we also have to view the Government’s approach to the virus in a second context, one entirely in keeping with the broader, longer term trajectory in government regulation in the UK. This stretches back at least four decades. It is a  trajectory towards less regulation, less law, less enforcement, less intervention in social life, at least where these might affect the dominant institutions of our society and how these operate – all of which is claimed, perversely, to produce better outcomes in terms of social protection.

Look again at the strictures set out by Johnson to ‘flatten the curve’ as we move into the ‘delay’ phase – to use the quickly commonplace, but quasi-scientific jargon: wash your hands, self-isolate for ‘at least’ 7 days, don’t go on international school trips and avoid cruises if you are over 70. These all responsibilise – they place the primary onus of protection on individuals themselves with what is often banal or imprecise advice. And advice is key: none of this overly prescriptive (no ‘you must’ or ‘must not’), certainly none of it involves regulation nor law, all of it is based upon attempts to nudge people into modifying their behaviour. And here we get to the heart of the ‘other’ aspect of the scientific approach informing the Government here, namely ‘behavioural science’’.

Following, and partly as a consequence of,  the emergence and consolidation of ‘Better Regulation’ (ie less regulation) at the heart of UK governments through the 1900s and 2000s, the idea of nudging people towards more ‘responsible’ behaviour became ever central to Government thinking about regulation. Nudging – as an element of what is known as ‘behavioural science’ – came to prominence with the work of Richard Thaler, the Chicago economist who was to win the Nobel Prize for economics in 2017, and the Harvard economist Cass Sunstein. The latter had worked in the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, and his view of state regulation is encapsulated in the title of a 2013 book, Simpler: The Future of Government, which has been characterised thus:

New principles  … are  transforming government. Countless regulations are being streamlined or eliminated. Transparent review of which rules are working, and which aren’t, is becoming the norm. Citing numerous examples from his years in the first term of the Obama Administration, and projecting forward into a data-driven future, Simpler provides a new understanding of how government can work.

The approach is one underpinned by an antipathy to state intervention and regulation, as typified in the UK in the work of the Nudge Unit’, established by Cameron in 2010 within the Cabinet Office.  Although now only partly overseen by the Cabinet Office, this has been “working closely with the Department of Health and Social Care in crafting the government response” to Coronavirus. It has been a key influence over  “when to move from ‘contain’ to ‘delay’ phasing. This is based on evidence about duration of compliance.” Public contributions to the issue in the past month have been the blogs How to stop touching our faces in the wake of the Coronavirus (5^th March) and Covid-19: how do we encourage the right behaviours during an epidemic? (24^th February). This general approach to ‘behavioural government’ – not least on how Government’s should frame messages to the population (hence the focus on scientificity, above) –  is spelt out in a 2019 report, Behavioural Government Using behavioural science to improve how governments make decisions. It will perhaps come as no surprise to learn that Dominic Cummings, the controversial Chief Adviser to the PM, is closely associated with what he refers to as the ‘behavioural and experimental economics’ initiative.

Afterword

The deference-to-science approach may be a genuinely held commitment by PM Johnson and his Government. Or, it may be an abrogation of political responsibility, with more than an element of political back-covering. It is certainly, compared to approaches to managing coronavirus taken in other countries across the world, including our closest neighbours and our major European comparators, very much a leap of faith. Is it really based upon the best science, epidemiological and behavioural? Or is it an attempt to delay immediate measures which appear on balance more likely to provide social protection but which at the same time may do two things very quickly: expose the frailties of chronically underfunded national health, public health and public services infrastructures, all subjected to severe austerity cuts for over a decade; and bring grinding to a halt business-as-usual, risking further devastating effects to a stock market which on the same day as Johnson’s press conference had experienced its largest single loss since so-called Black Monday in 1987.

Amidst all the uncertainties associated with coronavirus, there is perhaps only one thing we can be sure about in terms of the Government’s approach to its control: only the test of time will judge its efficacy; and we will be the Guinea pigs.

Read the original article on the HERC website