By Jack Congram
(Submitted as part of the Open Politics Student Blogs)

With Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States beginning, the country has seen fit to threaten the sovereignty of two NATO allies to its north, the small nation of Panama over unproven claims about the Panama Canal, tariffs to various underdeveloped nations in South America over mass deportation efforts, alongside messaging and executive orders for an 'America First' foreign policy. As the U.S. threatens traditional allies and underdeveloped nations through protectionist policies and diplomatic confrontations, China appears increasingly attractive as a stable partner. What does this mean for the U.S.-led liberal order and China's long-term ambitions?

Disclaimer: The majority of this post was written prior to the announcement of major U.S. tariffs on April 2nd, 2025.

China’s rapid rise since the turn of the century, both economically and politically, has frightened policymakers in the United States as the once sole superpower reassesses its position in the world. Meanwhile, China’s governing communist party wants their country to be a major global power to reshape global dynamics to be equitable for all nations.

China’s Rise

To begin with, China's rise as a major global economic and political power began in the 1980s with Deng Xiaoping's “reform and opening-up” policies, which ended decades of isolation under Mao Zedong. These reforms allowed foreign investment in special economic zones like Shenzhen and later expanded nationwide. China’s international presence grew with its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the launch of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for economic and regional security ties. In 2009, China co-founded BRICS with India, Russia, and Brazil, later including South Africa. And under Xi Jinping, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched to support development in the Global South to bolster two-way trade and economic cooperation. Since their establishment, all of the mentioned initiatives have continued to gain new members each year.

Through mechanisms like FOCAC, China has deepened ties with African nations based on mutual development goals. The SCO provides a forum for Eurasian cooperation on security and regional stability, while BRICS has become a political and economic alternative platform for emerging economies to amplify their voices in global decision-making. Meanwhile, the BRI has offered much-needed infrastructure investment to underdeveloped regions, positioning China as a key player in advancing international development and connectivity.

Despite its rapid growth, China has engaged in few wars, none of which were to expand its market or to seize resources. The Korean War (1950–1953) was its most significant conflict, joining on the side of the north, demonstrating its ability to counter major powers after a century of foreign exploitation. Brief wars with India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979 were its last major military actions. Since 1984, China has adhered to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence — respect of sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference, equality, and peaceful coexistence — to guide its foreign policy.

Shift in American Foreign Policy

As China continues to peacefully rise, Donald Trump has retaken the White House. Back in the U.S.’s top office, Trump quickly got to work signing executive orders, two including pulling the United States from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, a major international organization to support global public health and an agreement on slowing potentially catastrophic climate change. In addition, Trump has implemented a series of tariffs on goods coming from Canada, Mexico, and China (25% on the former two and 10% on the latter) and threatened imports from the European Union (EU) too. These tariffs both heighten fragile trade tensions and signal a shift toward economic nationalism from the U.S. in our extremely connected world. Historically, tariffs that Trump is implementing today caused the Great Depression of the 1930s.

On the campaign trail, Trump made various threats about taking over Canada, annexing Greenland from Denmark, and reclaiming the Panama Canal, showing a serious disregard for the sovereignty of three nations, two of which are U.S. allies through NATO, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio adding that Trump was serious. In a terrifying development for Europe, Trump is attempting to make Ukraine an economic colony too. Alongside doling out threats, Trump has also begun to dismantle various U.S. soft power organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy and USAID, crippling developmental, journalistic, and disease prevention initiatives abroad.

A New World Order?

With Trump now routinely throwing out threats of tariffs and ending support to whomever, the position of the U.S. internationally is quickly regressing. With an opening left internationally, China has quickly swept in to replace funding provided by the U.S., and on better terms for the recipient. For example, when U.S. officials attempted to strongarm a deportation flight to land in Colombia the nation's government refused, quickly torpedoing the two nations' relations and allowing China to step up. As nations typically within the U.S. sphere turn to China for partnerships, what’s preventing traditional allies from doing the same as they too?

Intentional or not, America’s regression on the international stage is a major defeat for the U.S.-led liberal rules-based world order. Along with leading this world order, the U.S. also bankrolled it with massive spending on its military forces, intelligence apparatus, and soft power initiatives. The liberal world order brought considerable wealth and prosperity to the Global North along with a long peace between major European powers in the 19th and 20th centuries (bar a decade of obstruction with the two world wars); its positive effects in the Global South are debatable.

As the U.S. retreats from the international stage, will China reshape the world to its own advantage? Given the opportunity, China has made clear it is willing to collaborate with any nation so long as it is a win-win relationship. The existing liberal EU economic and political power bloc can partner with China to maintain some semblance of the international order, utilizing FOCAC, SCO, BRICS, and BRI. The global order may change, possibly into something more equitable for all nations, as the center of global power moves from one nation to several. Making it so that no single nation will have the final say over the rest of the planet anymore.