By Mufaro Makubika

Extreme weather phenomena across the world have become increasingly visible signs of the change in the climate. According to the UN, climate change is the greatest threat the world has ever faced. Damage from extreme weather events from across the world has cost an estimated $16m (£13m) an hour for the 20 years, up to 2019. Who’s been paying this cost?

Everyone, is the answer, but with costs unevenly distributed among states. A clearer distribution of the costs of climate change can be achieved by classifying nations. In this instance as either developed or developing as designated by the OECD. These terminologies are challenged by some but for this blog we can take them as a start point for our discussion.  

By 2022, climate change was costing the UK, a developed nation, 1.1% of its GDP. This cost is projected to grow to 3.3% by 2050 and 7.4% by 2100. Due to the size of its economy, a feature of developed nations, the UK can better weather the costs associated with climate change like mitigation and adaption.  

Descriptive analysis of the overall economic impact of climate change is hard as lack of data reduces the accuracies of comparable data. It is estimated that climate change is costing developing nations an estimated $400bn a year.

These costs have led to calls for justice for developing nations which have historically had lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to developed nations. The historical analysis of climate change then becomes a key concern of climate justice. Historical industrialisation in 19th century Europe, colonisation and the emergence of the US as an economic powerhouse in the 20th Century are contributary factors to the current levels of greenhouse gases a major contributor to climate change. As of 2021, the US was the biggest cumulative greenhouse gas emitter in the world since 1850, contributing to a 0.2 rise in global temperatures in that period.

In 2009, at COP15, The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, the developed nations agreed to provide funding rising up to $100 billion a year by 2020 to support climate  action in developing countries. By 2020, only $83.3 billion had been provided by developed nations, a shortfall of $16.7 billion from the target set in 2019. Of that funding only 8% went to low income countries and 25% to Africa even though both are more susceptible to climate events. It also important to note that most if not all of this funding has been used for climate mitigation rather than adaption.

In addition to the climate finance agreed at COP15, the developing nations of the world have also proposed a new fund to cover loss and damage already experienced from climate change. Agreed in 2023 at COP28 a new loss and damage of $700 million was established. According to estimates this only represents less 0.2% of the cost developing nations are experiencing yearly because of climate change. The UK is contributing up to £60 million to this new fund in addition to its ongoing commitments.  

In 2019 the then Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, announced the doubling of the UK’s contributions towards International Climate Finance (ICF), pledging £11.6 billion between 2021/22 – 2025/26. Critics have accused the UK government of dropping this commitment, an allegation which has been challenged by the government which argues that it is on course to meet its pledge based on three new assumptions. The first being that of the overall aid budget allocated to 10% of the poorest countries, arguably developing countries, 30% of the international aid budget will be assumed to have been spent on ICF. The second assumption is that UK aid investment in climate change is no longer assumed to be just 30% and thirdly, the UK would consider any funding to development banks towards ICF as part of its £11.6 billion pledge.

Commentators have suggested that this in in fact a redefinition of ICF. Not only is it a redefinition, but in effect it reduces the amount of the development budget available for other humanitarian causes excluding climate action. Andrew Mitchell, the UK government’s Development Minister has argued that this change is ‘clarification and not definitional change’ to fall in with other developed nation practices and standards. Prior to these changes, real time analysis of the government’s own portfolios had shown that as of 2023 the UK was an estimated 40% behind its target pledge of £11.6 billion.

There have been renewed calls by policy makers from some of the leading developed nations for reform of multilateral international organisations, especially banks, to improve access to finance for developing nations to fight climate change. Other commentators have argued that governments around the world should play more of a key role in ICF through policy rather than leaving it to the markets. What is clear is that climate change is a crisis affecting the whole world but to varying degrees. What is also clear is that the solutions require global cooperation, commitment and actualisation.

About the author: Mufaro Makubika is an award-winning playwright living in Nottingham. Mufaro is currently studying for a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics with the OU and a Student Intern with the OU POLIS team.